Political analyst Henry Shield has predicted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could struggle to match his 2023 presidential election performance if he seeks re-election in 2027.
Speaking during an interview on Vanguard’s Politics Hub, Shield claimed that a majority of Nigerians would not vote for Tinubu if an opinion survey were conducted nationwide.
He said his assessment was based on consultations, market surveys, street surveys and interactions with Nigerians from different sections of society.
“We do market consultation, market surveys, we do street surveys. We go out and we engage with the people, and I can tell you, sample 1,000 Nigerians, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu,” Shield said.
He challenged media organisations and other stakeholders to independently test his claim by conducting a nationwide opinion poll, arguing that such a survey would provide a clearer indication of voters’ current preferences ahead of the 2027 election.
“Please don’t take my word. You are a media house. Engage people to do this for the sake of our democracy,” he said.
Shield reiterated his prediction, saying: “Sample 1,000 opinions today in Nigeria, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu.”
Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with 8,794,726 votes, representing 36.61 per cent of the total votes cast.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party came second with 6,984,520 votes, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi polled 6,101,533 votes.
The three politicians are expected to remain prominent figures in the 2027 presidential race, although Atiku and Obi have since moved to different political platforms.
Atiku has joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Obi has left the Labour Party for the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC).
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