The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that rising prices of essential goods will deepen poverty and food insecurity in Nigeria, despite signs of improving macroeconomic stability and stronger economic growth.
In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, the IMF maintained Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 4.1 percent for 2026 and 4.3 percent for 2027, attributing the outlook to ongoing macroeconomic reforms and favorable terms of trade.
However, the Fund cautioned that the benefits of economic stabilization may be overshadowed by the increasing cost of basic necessities.
“Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favorable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity,” the IMF stated.
The report noted that economic performance across Sub-Saharan Africa remains uneven, with countries experiencing varying outcomes based on policy reforms, fiscal capacity, and exposure to external shocks.
According to the IMF, oil-importing and non-resource-intensive economies are bearing the brunt of rising energy and food prices, while some larger economies continue to benefit from earlier stabilization efforts. The Fund also observed that many countries in the region remain largely excluded from the productivity gains associated with the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
The IMF projects Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy to grow by 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027.
Globally, the IMF revised its growth forecast downward, projecting the world economy to expand by 3.0 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027, below the average 3.5 percent recorded in 2024 and 2025.
The Fund attributed the slowdown to the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, although it noted that rising investment and demand driven by advances in artificial intelligence are helping to cushion the global economy.
The IMF also warned that global inflation is expected to rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent in 2026 before easing to 3.9 percent in 2027, signaling that the earlier trend of declining inflation has stalled.
It further cautioned that escalating tensions in the Middle East could fuel commodity price volatility, disrupt global supply chains, tighten financial conditions, and place additional pressure on inflation.
The report also highlighted growing concerns over trade fragmentation, warning that increasing barriers to global trade could weaken economic output while pushing prices even higher.
To address these risks, the IMF urged governments to prioritize price stability, rebuild fiscal buffers, strengthen energy security, accelerate AI readiness, and deepen international cooperation to support sustainable economic growth.
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