The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate will remain elevated through the second half of 2026, averaging 15.5 per cent during the period and for the full year.
The projection was contained in the group’s 2026 economic outlook, titled “Turning Potential into Progress.”
According to the NESG, persistent insecurity in major farming communities, climate-related disruptions, particularly flooding, and high transportation costs arising from logistics challenges are expected to continue putting pressure on prices.
The group also identified election-related spending, seasonal demand during the festive period and relatively high energy costs as factors that could trigger temporary cost-push inflationary pressures in the second half of the year.
“However, these pressures could be partly offset by continued exchange rate stability, the lagged effects of tight monetary policy, and favourable base effects,” the NESG stated.
On economic growth, the group projected that Nigeria’s economy would expand by 4.2 per cent in 2026, supported by improved performance in the oil, manufacturing, agricultural and services sectors.
The NESG expects economic growth to strengthen to 4.5 per cent in the second half of 2026, bringing full-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to approximately 4.2 per cent.
It said the oil sector is expected to sustain its growth trajectory, driven by improved domestic crude oil production, better security conditions and the gradual implementation of upstream reforms.
The group added that increased domestic refining activity would further boost industrial output, reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and strengthen the country’s external position.
“Moreover, manufacturing activity is expected to sustain growth momentum as lower inflation, continued exchange rate stability, and improved foreign exchange liquidity ease production constraints and strengthen business confidence,” the NESG said.
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