Nigeria’s exports to the United States fell sharply by N940.98 billion in the first nine months of 2025, even as imports from America more than doubled, reversing last year’s trade balance in Nigeria’s favor, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Data from the NBS shows that Nigeria shipped goods worth N3.65 trillion to the US between January and September 2025, down from N4.59 trillion in the same period in 2024—a decline of 20.5 percent. Meanwhile, imports from the US soared to N6.80 trillion, up from N3.01 trillion, creating a trade deficit of about N3.15 trillion. In comparison, Nigeria enjoyed a trade surplus of N1.57 trillion during the same period last year.
Analysts link the shift to Washington’s implementation of a “reciprocal” tariff regime, under which former US President Donald Trump raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 percent to 15 percent on a broad range of non-oil exports, effective August 7, 2025. Crude oil exports remain largely exempt, leaving non-oil products to bear the brunt of reduced demand.
Quarterly figures show exports fell from N1.54 trillion in Q1 to N1.36 trillion in Q2, then plunged to N743.63 billion in Q3. Imports, by contrast, jumped from N1.42 trillion in Q1 to N2.16 trillion in Q2 and surged further to N3.22 trillion in Q3, widening the trade deficit significantly.
Product-level data highlights the imbalance. In Q1, crude petroleum oils, urea, and kerosene-type jet fuel dominated exports, while imports were led by crude oil, used diesel vehicles, lubricating oil additives, and soya beans. By Q3, Nigeria’s exports to the US were limited to smaller items like soya bean flour and cocoa powder, while imports of crude oil, vehicles, wheat, and industrial plastics continued to surge.
Despite the downturn, the federal government remains optimistic. President Bola Tinubu has assured that Nigeria will withstand the impact of US tariffs, citing growing non-oil revenues and economic reforms as buffers. Similarly, Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, emphasized continued focus on export diversification, African Continental Free Trade Area integration, and expanding partnerships beyond the US, including with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE.
Experts view the tariffs as both a challenge and an opportunity. Dr. Aliyu Ilias of CSA Advisory suggested Nigeria could leverage its BRICS membership and explore new global trade partnerships, while Dr. Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise downplayed the US trade impact, pointing to Nigeria’s limited trade exposure and the broader strategic importance of non-oil export diversification.
Beyond tariffs, stakeholders highlight US visa restrictions as a more significant long-term challenge, limiting business travel, investment, and bilateral trade relations. Starting January 1, 2026, holders of several visa categories—including business, tourist, student, and exchange visas—will be barred from entering the US, affecting Nigerians across multiple sectors.
As Nigeria navigates a shrinking US market, attention is turning to domestic reforms, non-oil export growth, and South–South trade partnerships as key drivers of economic resilience.
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