As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, anxiety is spreading among citizens, political observers, and democracy advocates.
A wave of high-profile defections — from governors to senators and other influential politicians — is reshaping the nation’s political landscape and stirring fears that Africa’s largest democracy may be sliding toward a one-party system.
In recent months, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has tightened its grip on power, absorbing key figures from the opposition. Governors Peter Mbah of Enugu State and Douye Diri of Bayelsa State recently dumped the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the APC, within days of each other. Their exit expanded the APC’s control to 25 of Nigeria’s 36 states, leaving the PDP with 8, while the Labour Party (LP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) each cling to one state apiece.
For many, this dominance rekindles memories of Nigeria’s past political experiments — from the Abacha era’s state-sponsored parties to Babangida’s restricted two-party system. Analysts warn that today’s defections mirror those historic moments when power was consolidated under one leader and dissenting voices were muted.
PDP in Crisis, Opposition in Freefall
Once Nigeria’s political powerhouse, the PDP is now reeling from internal crises, defections, and leadership disputes that have crippled its national structure. Since President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, the party has lost more than 15 senators, several House of Representatives members, and four governors to the ruling APC.
The Labour Party is fragmented by factional battles, while APGA appears ideologically silent, with its only governor, Prof. Charles Soludo, openly backing President Tinubu’s re-election. The NNPP, too, is struggling for relevance amid leadership wrangling and political compromises.
NNPP National Chairman Agbo Major told DAILY POST that the APC’s actions amount to “a deliberate attempt to kill opposition voices.” He warned:
“If one party controls both the legislature and the executive, real democracy becomes impossible. Without strong opposition, there’s no accountability.”
He described the current defections as the product of greed and political opportunism rather than ideology — a culture he traced back to the PDP era.
Echoes of the Past
During Nigeria’s Second Republic (1979–1983), the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) controlled only 7 of 19 states, while strong opposition parties such as the UPN, NPP, PRP, and GNPP provided checks and balance. That equilibrium, many fear, is now gone.
APC Defends Defections
Not everyone agrees that democracy is in danger.
Okpokwu Ogenyi, an APC chieftain, said most defectors are acting out of “self-interest and political survival.” He maintained that Nigeria “can never become a one-party state again,” insisting that some politicians genuinely support Tinubu’s policies on infrastructure and human capital development.
Another APC member, Dada Akinfemi, argued that the PDP is simply reaping what it sowed:
“When they were in power, they boasted about ruling for 100 years and suppressed opposition. Now the tables have turned.”
Warning Signs and Outrage
Concerns deepened when Senate President Godswill Akpabio recently boasted that President Tinubu would secure “99.9% of the votes in 2027.”
Human rights lawyer David Mike condemned the remark as “undemocratic and dangerous,” warning that it “signals complacency and the death of competitive politics.”
From civil society to the clergy, alarm bells are ringing. The Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria, in a communiqué signed by Archbishop Lucius Ugorji and Bishop Donatus Ogun, cautioned that Nigeria is “gradually sliding into a one-party state, which is unhealthy for democracy.”
Déjà Vu: When Babangida Tried a Two-Party State
Nigeria’s current dilemma evokes the Babangida years, when the military government imposed a two-party system — the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and National Republican Convention (NRC) — to control political diversity. That system collapsed after the annulment of the historic June 12, 1993 election.
Three decades later, many fear history is repeating itself — not by decree, but through political manipulation and opportunism.
As 2027 approaches, Nigerians are asking hard questions:
If opposition parties continue to crumble, who will challenge the ruling party?
And when power becomes absolute, what remains of democracy?
For now, the 2027 election remains “heavily pregnant” — and no one can predict what it will deliver.
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