Abuja – Nigerians may be heading for another increase in petrol pump prices, barely days after the last adjustment, following a sustained rise in crude oil prices in the international market.
Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude climbed to $70.30 per barrel, up from $64 last week — a jump of nearly 10 per cent and the highest price recorded so far this year. Brent crude, the global benchmark, also rose to $70.15 per barrel from $66, while Murban crude increased to $68.01 from $65.20.
The rise in crude prices has already begun to reflect locally. Earlier in the week, petrol pump prices were raised to an average of ₦850 per litre, representing a 14.3 per cent increase from the ₦750 per litre sold just days earlier.
Oil marketers and the Dangote Refinery attributed the hike to rising global crude prices, noting that crude oil remains the primary determinant of refining costs. However, analysts observed that while crude prices rose by about 6.2 per cent, retail petrol prices jumped by over 14 per cent, raising concerns about disproportionate price adjustments.
At the Dangote Refinery, the gantry price of petrol increased from ₦699 per litre to ₦799, triggering widespread price hikes at retail outlets across Abuja, Lagos, and other parts of the country.
NNPC Retail outlets adjusted prices from ₦815 to ₦835 per litre, while independent marketers imposed steeper increases. AYM Shafa, for instance, raised its pump price to ₦900 per litre from ₦815.
Confirming the development, the National Public Relations Officer of the Independent Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chief Chinedu Ukadike, blamed the surge squarely on crude oil prices.
“Once the cost of crude oil goes up, refiners increase prices. Marketers have no choice but to adjust accordingly. Dangote alone increased prices by over ₦110,” he said.
On concerns that marketers raised prices despite having old stock, Ukadike explained that replacement costs determine pricing.
“Even if we sell old stock, we cannot replenish at the old price. The margin and buying cost are higher, and marketers must stay in business,” he added.
Diesel Prices Rise Further
While petrol prices remained largely stable on Wednesday, diesel prices rose at several depots. Emadeb sold diesel at ₦930 per litre, up from ₦910, while Ibeto and Integrated sold at ₦950, up from ₦907 and ₦910 respectively.
Why Crude Prices Are Rising
The global oil rally has been linked to a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories, which fell by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended January 24, 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions following U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of military action against Iran — OPEC’s fourth-largest oil producer — have fueled fears of supply disruptions of up to 3.2 million barrels per day.
Experts Warn of Economic Pressure
Petroleum economist Prof. Wumi Iledare warned that higher crude prices would worsen pressure on households and businesses.
“When crude oil rises due to geopolitical tensions, fuel prices follow. For Nigeria, this means higher transport costs, rising prices of goods, and greater strain on household budgets,” he said.
Similarly, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), described the situation as a double-edged sword.
“While higher crude prices may boost government revenue and foreign reserves, deregulation means consumers will face higher fuel, diesel, and cooking gas prices,” he noted.
Energy consultant Mr. Henry Adigun added that foreign exchange volatility and ongoing price competition between importers and the Dangote Refinery have masked the true cost of petrol, warning that further adjustments remain inevitable.
A partner at Kreston Pedabo, Mr. Olufemi Idowu, also cautioned that higher fuel prices would have ripple effects across the economy.
“Transportation, construction, and production costs will rise, worsening inflation and reducing purchasing power,” he said.
Outlook
With crude oil prices remaining above $70 per barrel, industry experts say Nigerians should brace for further fuel price increases, unless global tensions ease or local supply conditions improve.
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