Abuja — The Federal Government has set an ambitious target to raise manufacturing’s contribution to Nigeria’s economy to between 20 and 25 per cent by 2030, with the imminent rollout of the Nigerian Industrial Policy.
However, available data show that the sector still faces deep structural challenges, having recorded a steady decline over the past three decades despite expectations of modest improvement in the near term.
Manufacturing’s share of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which stood at over 20 per cent in the early 1990s, has fallen sharply to less than 9 per cent in 2024, highlighting the erosion of Nigeria’s industrial base. The sector’s average contribution in the first nine months of 2025 stood at 8.35 per cent.
Historical figures indicate that manufacturing contributed 20.3 per cent to GDP in 1992, but data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that the sector has largely stagnated within the 8–9 per cent range in recent years. Manufacturing accounted for 9.20 per cent of GDP in 2018, 9.06 per cent in 2019, 8.99 per cent in 2020, 8.98 per cent in 2021, and 8.92 per cent in 2022. In 2023, it averaged about 9.0 per cent, while preliminary figures for 2024 place it within a 9–10 per cent band.
Speaking at the soft launch of the Nigerian Industrial Policy, the Minister of State for Industry, John Enoh, said the new policy is designed to strengthen local production, promote backward integration, expand access to affordable financing, and deepen linkages between small and large enterprises.
According to him, the government is committed to creating an enabling environment that will allow manufacturers to expand and compete effectively.
“Our goal is to reposition manufacturing as a major driver of economic growth, job creation, and export expansion, and raise its contribution to GDP to between 20 and 25 per cent by 2030,” Enoh said. “This is achievable if we continue to implement reforms that improve power supply, access to finance, and industrial infrastructure.”
He added that the policy outlines practical steps to address long-standing constraints in the sector, particularly unreliable electricity, limited financing, and weak industrial infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has projected a modest improvement, estimating that manufacturing will account for about 10.2 per cent of real GDP in 2026.
Despite government optimism, analysts say achieving the 2030 target will require sustained policy consistency, massive infrastructure investment, and significant improvements in the operating environment for manufacturers.
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