Nigeria’s crude oil production declined year-on-year and month-on-month in January 2026, falling short of both the Federal Government’s budget benchmark and its quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), despite global oil prices trading above the government’s reference price.
Latest data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show that total oil output, including condensate, dropped by 6.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.627 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, compared to 1.737 million bpd recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, production also weakened, declining by 5.4 per cent from 1.544 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.627 million bpd in January 2026, according to the Commission’s National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report.
The NUPRC disclosed that the lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate production levels during the month stood at 1.59 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 1.82 million bopd, respectively. The agency further noted that Nigeria currently produces approximately 196,028 bpd of condensate.
The January performance indicates that the country failed to meet its 2026 budget production benchmark of 1.84 million bpd. The budget is anchored on an oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
Meanwhile, global oil prices eased to about $67 per barrel, down from nearly $70 per barrel in recent weeks, reflecting continued volatility in the international energy market.
Separately, OPEC reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production — excluding condensate — fell by five per cent year-on-year to 1.459 million bpd in January 2026, compared to 1.539 million bpd in January 2025. In its February 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, the cartel noted that the figures were obtained through direct communication with member countries.
The data also showed that Nigeria underperformed its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd during the period under review.
The sustained shortfall in output raises fresh concerns over the country’s revenue projections and fiscal stability, particularly as oil earnings remain a critical pillar of government financing.
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