Nigeria’s crude oil imports surged by 26.5 per cent to 5,665,602 metric tons in the first half of 2025 (H1’25), up from 4,478,413 metric tons in the same period of 2024, driven largely by the operations of the 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The refinery, which sources crude from nations including the United States, Brazil, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea, has reshaped Nigeria’s oil trade flows since beginning operations in May 2023 and refining diesel and aviation fuel in early 2024.
A breakdown of fresh data from the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) showed that while crude imports fell by 30 per cent year-on-year in Q1’25 to 2,400,553 metric tons, volumes skyrocketed in Q2’25 to 3,265,099 metric tons — a 126 per cent increase compared to Q2’24.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s petroleum exports dipped slightly, with Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) exports at 998,500 metric tons in H1’25, down 7.45 per cent from 1,078,912 metric tons in H1’24.
Domestic supply challenges
Despite the government’s Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation targeting 2.06 million bpd in H1’25 — with 37 per cent earmarked for local refineries — actual production lagged behind. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed production levels between 1.6 and 1.7 million bpd across the first seven months of the year.
Energy economist Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), attributed Dangote’s reliance on imported crude to Nigeria’s constrained domestic output, much of which is tied up in forward contracts with international buyers.
“Over time, a significant portion of our crude has been pre-sold through forward contracts, leaving limited availability for local refiners,” he explained.
Shipping and revenue boost
Maritime consultant Oluwabunmi Ogunjimi highlighted the refinery’s wider economic impact, noting that Dangote has become a major revenue source for the NPA through ship dues, towage fees, and pilotage charges.
“Dangote has created new shipping activities that never existed before. Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) now call at our waters, paying significant dues. This has transformed Nigeria’s shipping and oil logistics sector,” Ogunjimi said.
Global practice, future outlook
Clement Isong, CEO of the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), stressed that importing crude is not unusual even for oil-producing nations. “Dangote sources some feedstock locally, but imports are necessary to meet its huge refining capacity,” he noted.
Industry experts believe output may rise in the medium term under the government’s Project 1 Million Barrels initiative, aimed at scaling daily production to 2.5 million bpd.
According to NUPRC, the synergy between local refineries and upstream operators in H1’25 marks a step toward greater self-sufficiency and a more robust petroleum sector.
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