Aviation travel between Canada and the United States is experiencing a dramatic decline, with bookings plummeting by over 70%, according to data from aviation analytics company OAG.
The report, cited by The Guardian UK, attributes the collapse to ongoing trade tensions sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tariff war with Canada. The data indicates that airline capacity between the two nations has been significantly reduced through October 2025.
The sharpest reductions are expected during the peak travel season of July and August, traditionally a busy period for trans-border flights. From March 2024 to March 2025, passenger bookings on Canada-to-US routes have fallen by an alarming 71% to 76% compared to the same period last year.
Moreover, airlines have cut over 320,000 seats on cross-border flights through the end of October 2025, with the steepest reductions—3.5%—occurring in the summer months. Despite these cuts, the sheer scale of the decline suggests that reduced capacity alone cannot account for the significant drop in traveler interest.
The data indicates that Canadian passengers are increasingly hesitant to book US-bound flights, likely due to the uncertainty and economic repercussions of the tariff conflict.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has strongly condemned the latest wave of tariffs, describing them as a “direct attack” on Canadian workers. As tensions persist, the future of trans-border air travel between Canada and the US remains uncertain.
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