With the second anniversary of the Bola Tinubu administration approaching in May 2025, attention is gradually shifting towards the 2027 general elections. The political landscape is heating up as Northern leaders and politicians debate their stance on Tinubu’s re-election bid, with key figures voicing opposition to his administration’s policies.
A growing divide within the Northern political bloc, which played a crucial role in Tinubu’s 2023 victory alongside the South West, is becoming increasingly evident. Some Northern leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the president’s economic policies, which they argue have exacerbated poverty and hardship. Additionally, concerns over insecurity, allegations of nepotism, and perceived disconnect from the realities faced by everyday Nigerians have fueled discontent.
Among those challenging Tinubu’s second-term ambitions is Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, who also serves as the chairman of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Governors’ Forum. Mohammed, a former minister and senator, has hinted at a possible challenge to Tinubu in 2027, stating that the North will reveal its political strength in the next election. His comments have sparked speculation that he may position himself as the Northern candidate to lead the opposition against the incumbent president.
Mohammed’s history as a political strategist, including his role in enabling former President Goodluck Jonathan’s ascension to power through the “doctrine of necessity,” suggests he may leverage his influence in the North East to build a formidable opposition. However, political analysts suggest that his stance could also serve as a bargaining tool, potentially paving the way for negotiations with Tinubu’s camp.
In contrast to Mohammed’s calculated approach, activist Yerima Shettima, leader of the Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG) and the Arewa Youths Consultative Forum (AYCF), has taken a more confrontational stance. Shettima has publicly criticized Tinubu and threatened to rally Northern voters against him. However, critics argue that Shettima lacks significant electoral influence and is known more for his controversial statements than for any tangible political achievements.
His past actions, including a widely condemned 2017 “quit notice” to the Igbo community, have often drawn criticism. In a separate incident, a leaked phone conversation purportedly captured Shettima making inflammatory remarks about the Igbo people, fueling misconceptions that linked his comments to Vice President Kashim Shettima due to their shared surname. Despite these controversies, his political clout remains questionable.
While internal rifts within the Northern political class persist, experts note that no single region can unilaterally unseat an incumbent president in a democratic setting. Historically, successful presidential bids require alliances between the North and key blocs in the South, such as the South West or the South East/South South regions.
Despite mounting opposition, Tinubu remains a seasoned political tactician known for building strategic coalitions. Political observers suggest that while dissatisfaction with his administration exists, unseating an incumbent president is a formidable challenge that requires widespread discontent, a united opposition, and a compelling alternative candidate.
As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 elections, the evolving dynamics between Tinubu’s administration and Northern powerbrokers will be critical in shaping the country’s political future. Whether the current dissent leads to a serious challenge or eventual reconciliation remains to be seen.
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