NASA has identified an asteroid, 2024 YR4, with a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, making it the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, by Chile’s El Sauce Observatory, the asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet wide. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) raised alarms on January 29 after its impact probability exceeded 1%, and it has since fluctuated but continues to rise.
Despite growing odds—equivalent to guessing five coin tosses correctly—experts urge calm. Bruce Betts, Chief Scientist at the Planetary Society, explained that while probabilities may initially increase, they often drop to zero with more data.
The James Webb Space Telescope will observe 2024 YR4 next month to refine impact predictions. Meanwhile, the European Space Agency (ESA) places the asteroid’s impact probability slightly lower at 2.8%, calling the situation “historic.”
The last asteroid to pose such a threat was Apophis in 2004, briefly reaching a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth in 2029, a risk later ruled out. Scientists remain vigilant, emphasizing that further observations will determine whether 2024 YR4 is truly on a collision course.
Comments