Nigerians’ opposition to the ECOWAS threat of military action against the military invader in the Republic of Niger to restore democracy is becoming increasingly impossible for the authorities to ignore. Nonetheless, the member countries appear to be defying calls to remove the threat of force from the table in order to allow for genuine and sincere conversation with the coup leaders.
On Thursday, at its second special meeting in Abuja, the sub-regional organization passed another resolution alerting security chiefs in their various countries.
In recent years, the Francophone countries of West Africa have witnessed an alarming trend of military coups, culminating in the weakening of democratic rule. Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso, as well as Chad, are among the countries that have fallen under military authority. The recent overthrow of President Mohammed Bazoum put the Niger Republic, Nigeria’s immediate neighbor on the northern outskirts, on the list. Perhaps part of the apparent restlessness of ECOWAS leaders, particularly Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, stems from a desire to halt the trend’s infectious effect.
And, barring a last-minute change of heart, the military option may be unavoidable, as the junta continues to reject emissaries trying to open diplomatic engagement as an alternative to war.
With the current state of affairs, there is little probability that the coup leaders will abandon their strong stance against any type of external involvement. They have been encouraged to take this stance by promises of support from their counterparts in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea. In order to guarantee the populace’s support for the government, they have also appointed an interim minister who will assist them in navigating the stormy waves of opposition from the sub-region.
The ECOWAS is currently grappling with how to strike a delicate balance between diplomacy, which appears to be failing, and military action, which is equally unpopular among stakeholders, particularly in Nigeria, the home nation of its Chairman, President Tinubu.
Tinubu had dispatched three separate delegations to the coup leaders for talks to restore the previous constitutional system, but all were unsuccessful. Patrice Talon, President of the Republic of Benin, was brought there first, but he was disregarded. His counterpart in Chad, Mahamat Déby, was eventually detailed for the same mission that he left unfinished. General Abdulsalami Abubakar (rtd) and the Sultan of Sokoto, Abubakar Sa’ad, have both suffered from diplomatic neglect.
Some commentators have blamed the junta’s obstinate behavior on the ECOWAS’s first error in declaring military intervention before the political discussion had not been completely explored or exhausted. The regional group implemented a variety of harsh penalties against the coupists in its rushed vote at its first meeting in Abuja. These included, among other things, closing all land crossings with Niger, imposing a flying restriction, cutting off the electrical supply, and blocking cargo in transit from Niger to Lagos and other eastern seaports. Nonetheless, they have mainly remained unfazed.
Many people are now questioning whether the option of discussion can work in the current standoff between ECOWAS and Niger’s military authorities. If it does not, military action may become necessary. Tinubu, on the other hand, maybe on his own in Nigeria. One, the Senate has already denied his request for military deployment authorization.
Instead, the parliamentarians urged ECOWAS member states to consider political and diplomatic alternatives to military intervention to address the Niger problem. Second, there is already a growing wave of opposition to any form of forceful occupation of Niger.
While it is evident that ECOWAS would not back down from military threats if the junta persists, the use of force does not sit well with the people. The question today is whether Nigeria can lead a war against Niger and emerge unhurt. No, it can not. Both civilians and security specialists are united in their opposition to going to war with the coup leaders, especially given the country’s poor economic state.
Instead, the plea is for the next administration to focus its efforts on addressing the country’s socioeconomic and security concerns rather than entering an unpopular war that would bring more misery and hardship to an already traumatized people.
In response, a Peoples Democratic Party chieftain, Chief Bode George, a former director of the Nigerian National War College, urged against a needless clash with Niger, even if diplomatic measures prove fruitless.
“My appeal is to the ECOWAS heads of state to exercise greater caution. What are the advantages of going to war with Niger? War isn’t like a tea party. Jaw-jaw is preferable to war-war. Have we, as a nation, settled down? Looking at the current economic scenario in this country, people are still hungry and angry. The level of insecurity in the country is unrivaled. When they start the fight, they expect their giant brother, Nigeria, to fund it.
“We were much more economically stable in this country the last time we went to ECOWAS.” So, why would we commit funds that could be used to improve the country to fight a war? “Let us first help ourselves before we help others,” he suggested.
Former Foreign Minister and UN Permanent Representative Aminu Wali had similar sentiments, saying, “The entire ECOWAS is looking up to Nigeria for this war, and we have our own situation. In today’s Nigeria, we need our resources; we need our military to bring peace and security to our country.
“If we cannot secure ourselves, how can we now decide to use the meager resources that we have to go and start funding a war in a foreign country?
“I feel sorry for Tinubu. Going to war is not an option. He has already created within Nigeria the opposition to invade Niger. The president should have consulted the various stakeholders which could have stopped what happened in the Senate. For me, the responsibility of the welfare of the people of this country, first and foremost, should be of concern to Tinubu.”
According to him, obtaining UN Security Council authority to use force in Niger will be extremely difficult for ECOWAS. And, if it does, the war will be a proxy war, given the current scenario between Ukraine and Russia on the one hand, and Europe and America on the other.
“ECOWAS cannot go to war until it obtains the approval of the UN Security Council, which is already polarized,” he said. “Nobody can go to war with any sovereign nation without the Security Council’s approval.
“If there is going to be a war in Niger, it is likely to be a proxy war like what is going on in Ukraine between Europe, America, and Russia. Proxy war is going to be long drawn and it is going to affect us negatively at the end of the day.
“What we are going to get is negative. It is going to be difficult to draw a line between Nigerian and Nigeriens because 99.9 percent of people in Niger speak Hausa. There may be different tribes, but Hausa is their lingua franca. Even our own intelligent sources are going to be comprised because you cannot differentiate between Nigerians and Nigeriens.
“It is not going to be easy for us in terms of resources and human losses. Lives have to be lost. So, it is a very difficult situation.
“The first priority for any Nigerian is Nigeria. If we get involved without the consensus of the international community, then we are going to come back with bloody noses. A lot of countries are not saying anything and all of them know where they are going, but won’t tell you what they will do behind the scene. So, you never know, Russia may be with the coupists. In fact, they are.”
While analyzing the situation in relation to the option of war, Prof Usman Yusuf, a Professor of Hematology, Oncology, and bone marrow transplantation, who has played the role of interfacing with non-state actors within the ungoverned space between Nigeria and Niger, also stated: “We in the North are tired of war. We’ve been at war for 14 years, since 2009, with bandits and kidnappers, and you’re starting a new one. Long before the formation of these two countries known as Nigeria and Niger, we shared a cultural, religious, and linguistic legacy with Niger.
“The 19 states in Northern Nigeria are saying no to unprovoked war with Niger. His primary responsibility is to Nigerians, not the ECOWAS. And for goodness sake, where is he going to get the troops from? The Nigerian military is already overstretched all across the 36 states of this country. He should be very careful not to do the bidding of the Western world. The fight in Niger is not our fight. It is going to be a proxy war between Russia and NATO.
“We say no to war and we are not going to support any war. If he takes the decision to go to war, he is on his own. Even if he is the chairman of ECOWAS, we have to give him the approval to do that. Going to war, sending troops to the Niger Republic will be a disaster. We have had our own share of military takeover in Nigeria, nobody sent troops to us. What of Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Chad, nobody sent troops there.
“Military option is not the option. Instead of starting a fresh war, we want you to close the war of Boko Haram, banditry, and kidnapping. We want you to give a marching order to the military to end these wars. We want these wars to end and end now. It can be done. We don’t want it to be a forever war. Our societies have been devastated; the economy has been devastated, and our schools, hospital, and infrastructure devastated. Those who voted for you voted for you to bring an end to this war. That is your mandate from Nigerians, not the ECOWAS. We will mobilize Nigerians of good conscience against this war. We in the North will not support any form of aggression against the Niger Republic. You and your military should look inward and end this Boko Haram that has been plaguing us for 15 years. Do not leave this as an abandoned project and move to another theatre of war.
“First, take that threat of violence off the table. That is why they refuse to see our elders. Start serious and sincere negotiations. Pressure the junta to have a transition timetable to restore democracy as soon as possible.”
In its most recent statement, the Arewa Consultative Forum also urged ECOWAS to swiftly lift the sanctions placed on Niger.
This request came after the military dictatorship in Niger missed a one-week deadline to restore democratic rule in the country.
Prof Tukur Muhammad-Baba, the ACF’s media secretary, asked for greater communication with the junta in the statement to avoid a collapse in talks.
The statement reads in part: “Nigeria and Niger have had brotherly relations over the years and the ACF upon reviewing the latest political impasse, economic sanctions, and expiration of the one-week deadline given to the military (junta) in Niger have come to the conclusion that dialogue remains the best option to avoid a catastrophic occurrence of events between the two nations and the West African sub-region. We should utilize all available goodwill, diplomatic, political, economic, and human assets to win back the confidence of the people of Niger, who have, historically, come to regard Nigeria as a Big Brother!
“Towards this end, and to boost confidence measures: The ACF urges President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and ECOWAS to review the situation and restore full dialogue with the Nigerien military (junta) through the immediate lifting of the economic blockade and other sanctions imposed on the country as a sign of goodwill to facilitate swift dialogue.”
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