Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, is facing an uphill political battle following his high-profile defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a move that has so far failed to resonate across Nigeria’s North-West region.
El-Rufai, who announced his exit from the APC on March 10, 2025, cited growing “misalignment” between his values and the ruling party’s direction. He declared his intention to build a coalition of opposition parties to challenge the APC ahead of the 2027 general elections.
“As a member of the SDP, I will focus on engaging and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us under a unified democratic platform,” El-Rufai said at the time.
However, two months later, that ambition appears stalled. Despite holding closed-door meetings and reaching out to prominent political players, El-Rufai has failed to convince any major figure in the North-West — including sitting governors, senators, and state lawmakers — to join his new political front.
Sources familiar with the developments said the former FCT Minister made “frantic efforts” to woo governors in Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, and Kebbi states — all of which were unsuccessful. Even in Kebbi, where El-Rufai personally approached Senators Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki, his overtures were flatly rejected. Instead, the politicians opted to return to the APC.
In Nasarawa, a similar attempt to recruit the state governor into the SDP also ended in failure. Political insiders say there’s growing suspicion and distrust about El-Rufai’s intentions, with many viewing his move as either a ploy to destabilize the opposition or a disguised loyalty to President Tinubu.
“There’s a perception that his defection to the SDP is not genuine,” a political source in Kaduna revealed. “People feel he’s still working for Tinubu behind the scenes.”
The SDP itself remains weak in the North-West, lacking any visible party structure in states like Jigawa, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara. At the national level, it holds only two seats in the National Assembly — Senator Godiya Akwashiki and Hon. Abubakar Sarki Dahiru, both from Nasarawa State.
In the absence of high-profile endorsements, El-Rufai’s most notable recruit so far has been comedian MC Tagwaye, famed for mimicking ex-President Buhari — a move observers say reflects the depth of his isolation.
“Convincing a comedian is not the same as convincing political leaders. It shows how bad things are,” a source remarked.
El-Rufai’s troubles are partly rooted in the fallout from the 2023 general elections, where his alliance with Tinubu soured. Despite playing a critical role in mobilizing northern support for the APC, El-Rufai’s ministerial nomination was stalled over a security report by the DSS, sparking feelings of betrayal.
“That moment marked the beginning of his political isolation,” a source in Kebbi confirmed. “He believed Tinubu didn’t defend him strongly enough.”
His challenges are compounded in the South, where his controversial support for the Muslim-Muslim ticket continues to haunt him. Many Christian groups remain wary of his candidacy, making it difficult for the SDP to gain traction beyond northern strongholds.
In a surprising twist, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar reportedly advised El-Rufai to return to the PDP, the party that once propelled his early political career. But El-Rufai, sources say, instead urged Atiku to join him in the SDP — a suggestion Atiku declined.
Now, with his overtures rejected by both political elites and grassroots stakeholders, El-Rufai stands at a difficult crossroads: push forward with a faltering movement or return to a party he once left behind.
“He’s boxed in,” a source concluded. “Moving forward with the SDP feels like pushing a dead horse. But returning to the APC or PDP means swallowing a lot of pride. He’s running out of options.”
What was once a bold leap into opposition leadership is now shaping up to be El-Rufai’s riskiest political gamble yet — one with no guarantees and diminishing returns.
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