With the 2027 presidential election still years away, Nigeria’s political landscape is already witnessing intense maneuvering as aspirants and their supporters strategize for power. Key political figures are engaging in consultations and networking to secure alliances capable of delivering electoral victories.
Last month, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), declared that the North would back President Bola Tinubu for a second term and reclaim power in 2031, in line with Nigeria’s informal North-South power rotation principle. Echoing this stance, Minister of State for Defence and former Zamfara State Governor, Dr. Bello Matawalle, reaffirmed the North’s commitment to Tinubu’s administration, emphasizing the need to sustain his developmental projects across the country.
Tinubu’s Strategy to Strengthen Southern Support
Despite his victory in 2023, Tinubu struggled in the South-East and South-South, where Labour Party’s Peter Obi dominated. Recognizing the need for a broader electoral base, sources reveal that the president is engaging with regional leaders, including opposition governors, to secure strategic backing. Reports suggest negotiations may allow some opposition governors to retain their seats in exchange for political support.
If successful, this arrangement could see governors like Charles Soludo (Anambra, APGA), Peter Mbah (Enugu, PDP), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom, PDP), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta, PDP), and Bayelsa’s PDP government supporting Tinubu’s reelection bid. However, some APC leaders argue that securing governorship seats in these states would be a more effective strategy.
Northern Divisions Over Tinubu’s Second Term Bid
Ganduje’s assertion that the North should wait until 2031 to reclaim power has sparked divisions within the region. While some APC stalwarts, including Musa Iliyasu Kwankwaso, support this stance, others see it as a miscalculation that could alienate northern voters.
Former APC National Vice Chairman, Salihu Moh. Lukman, criticized Ganduje’s remarks, arguing that democracy must allow for internal debates and competition rather than enforcing a predetermined outcome.
Similarly, Abdul-Azeez Suleiman of the Northern Elders Forum urged the North to move beyond regional loyalty and prioritize competence in leadership selection. He noted that the North’s experience under former President Muhammadu Buhari, despite his regional ties, was marked by economic hardship, insecurity, and unfulfilled expectations.
Anthony Sani, former Secretary-General of the Arewa Consultative Forum, maintained that opposition to Ganduje’s stance is part of a healthy democratic process. He stressed that elections remain open contests and that power struggles within political parties should not stifle viable competition.
However, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) Kano Chairman, Hashimu Dungurawa, argued that Tinubu has not delivered on his promises to the North. He claimed that unpopular policies such as subsidy removal, increased taxation, and worsening insecurity have made it unlikely for northern voters to back Tinubu in 2027.
2027: A Tight Race Ahead
With Tinubu’s APC consolidating power, opposition figures such as Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (LP), and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) are expected to challenge him again. The president’s political future will likely hinge on his ability to expand his southern support while maintaining his stronghold in the North.
As Nigeria moves closer to another crucial election cycle, the coming months will determine whether the alliances being forged today will stand the test of political reality in 2027.
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