As the 2027 general elections draw closer, former Secretary-General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Anthony Sani, has cast doubt on the chances of opposition candidates, asserting that President Bola Tinubu remains the frontrunner—especially in the North.
In an interview with DAILY POST, Sani argued that Northerners are unlikely to back Labour Party’s Peter Obi, citing deep-seated trust issues and a lack of confidence that Obi would commit to a single term in office. He referenced the case of former President Goodluck Jonathan, who once pledged a single term but later sought re-election.
“The North cannot trust Peter Obi to do just one term. They remember Jonathan made a similar promise and didn’t keep it,” he said.
Sani also noted that former President Muhammadu Buhari’s loyal support base will likely remain aligned with the APC out of respect for the late leader’s political choices.
“Buhari was committed to APC until his death. His supporters are not the type to betray him—even in the grave,” Sani stated, adding that Tinubu still enjoys goodwill from the North because of this allegiance.
On the chances of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Sani maintained that the politics of zoning works against him, as many Nigerians believe the presidency should remain in the South to complete the regional balance.
“Unless Tinubu performs very badly—which I hope not—the North will allow him to finish the southern slot. Atiku is unlikely to benefit from zoning politics,” he said.
Regarding potential coalition tickets such as Atiku/Obi or Atiku/Amaechi, Sani dismissed their viability, insisting that such combinations would not overcome the structural advantages of the APC.
He further downplayed the influence of high-profile coalition figures, arguing that the opposition has yet to present a clear, alternative policy direction.
“They haven’t shown Nigerians what they would do differently. On major issues like fuel subsidy, all candidates—Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi—campaigned for its removal. So what new direction are they offering?”
Sani also assessed the roles of political heavyweights Nasir El-Rufai and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. While he described El-Rufai as a brilliant technocrat, he questioned his street-level political appeal. On Kwankwaso, however, he predicted a possible defection to the APC, which he believes could boost Tinubu’s chances significantly in the North.
“Kwankwaso has real electoral value and can deliver Kano. I see him moving to APC and increasing his political relevance.”
With just under two years to the next presidential polls, the battle lines are forming—but according to Sani, the odds remain in favour of President Tinubu.
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