ABUJA — Socio-political activist, Austin Okai, has identified former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, as the strongest threats to President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027.
Okai, a former House of Representatives candidate under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for Dekina/Bassa Federal Constituency in 2023, ruled out former President Goodluck Jonathan as a potential stumbling block to Tinubu, arguing that Jonathan is unlikely to contest again.
In an interview with Daily Post, Okai assessed the political climate ahead of 2027, warning that the PDP may be too weakened to mount a strong challenge and might have to wait until 2031 to regain relevance. He pointed to divisions, defections, and compromised state structures as major obstacles facing the party.
“The governors are the chief returning officers of the party in their states. When you see the likes of Adeleke endorsing APC, automatically he is turning to Tinubu. PDP may come back, but that will likely be in 2031,” Okai stated.
On the emerging African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, Okai admitted the party could provide a credible platform for opposition politics but cautioned against internal leadership crises that could derail its momentum.
“ADC must get its leadership right. There are technical and legal questions around David Mark’s emergence as interim chairman, and without a proper national convention supervised by INEC, the party risks implosion,” he warned.
Okai, however, emphasized that for the opposition to stand a chance, unity is key. “We can’t defeat Tinubu with divided opposition. Take it to the bank. Incumbency alone guarantees 40 percent of votes. If Atiku, Obi, PDP, and Labour Party all field separate candidates, APC will benefit from the split,” he said.
When asked if Atiku should step aside for a younger candidate, Okai defended the former vice president’s ambition: “There’s no age limit to contesting. If Buhari could become president after multiple attempts, why not Atiku? You don’t ask someone to abandon their lifelong ambition.”
He, however, acknowledged Peter Obi’s rising influence, especially in the North, and described him as the most formidable challenger if Jonathan stays out of the race.
“The major threat to APC today is Obi. His acceptability is growing, and he remains active nationwide. If Jonathan does not contest, Obi stands out as Tinubu’s biggest challenge in 2027,” Okai declared.
On insecurity, the activist commended the Tinubu administration for improvements compared to former President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure, noting progress on previously dangerous routes such as Abuja-Kaduna and Abuja-Lokoja.
“For the first time in over eight years, Abuja-Kaduna is safer, and DSS operations have weakened terror cells. Compared to Buhari’s era, Tinubu has done better on security,” Okai added.
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