The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) approved a 50% increase in call tariffs on Monday, potentially raising the average cost of phone calls to N16.5 per minute. This adjustment is expected to generate over N6.74 trillion in revenue for telecommunications operators by 2025, assuming call volumes remain stable. However, this projection does not account for the impact of free and discounted call promotions, which could alter the actual revenue figures.
According to the 2023 Subscriber/Network Performance Report from the NCC, the total outgoing telephone traffic in 2023 was 205.3 billion minutes, while incoming traffic reached 203.2 billion minutes. In total, Nigerians spent approximately 408.5 billion minutes making local calls in 2023, with MTN leading the market in both outgoing and incoming traffic.
At the new tariff of N16.5 per minute, MTN is projected to earn more than N4 trillion from its combined outgoing and incoming traffic, making it the primary beneficiary of the price increase and accounting for over 60% of the market’s total revenue. Airtel and Glo are expected to follow with projected revenues of N1.78 trillion and N536.2 billion, respectively. Smaller players, such as Smile and Ntel, are anticipated to generate significantly lower revenues.
Despite the increasing popularity of data services and over-the-top (OTT) messaging platforms, voice calls remain a significant revenue source for telecom operators. Outgoing calls alone are expected to bring in N3.28 trillion, while incoming calls could generate an estimated N3.23 trillion in 2025.
The tariff increase is also expected to affect SMS charges, with the average cost of sending a text message rising from N4 to N6. Based on the 2023 SMS traffic data, the telecom sector could earn N137.84 billion from SMS in 2025. MTN, which accounts for over 73% of the SMS market, is projected to generate approximately N100.72 billion from SMS traffic alone.
The NCC’s decision to approve the 50% tariff increase comes in response to rising operational costs and inflationary pressures in the telecom industry. The Commission has emphasized that the adjustment aims to balance the need for operators to invest in infrastructure while protecting consumers from excessive price hikes. The new tariffs will be implemented starting in February 2025.
While some consumer groups, such as the National Association of Telecoms Subscribers (NATCOMS), have voiced strong opposition to the increase, warning that it could worsen the financial burden on Nigerians, others have expressed conditional support, urging telecom operators to ensure significant improvements in service quality.
The NCC has indicated that it will continue to monitor the impact of the tariff hike and work with stakeholders to ensure that both consumers and operators benefit from a sustainable telecom ecosystem. Legal action could be pursued by consumer advocacy groups if service quality does not improve in line with the tariff adjustments.
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