The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2025 economic growth projection for Nigeria upward to 3.4 percent, reflecting increased optimism about the country’s short-term economic trajectory. The revised forecast, published in the IMF’s July 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO), represents a 0.4 percentage point increase from the 3.0 percent forecast issued in April.
The multilateral lender also upgraded its projection for Nigeria’s 2026 growth to 3.2 percent, up from the 2.7 percent forecast in April—an improvement of 0.5 percentage points.
On a broader scale, the IMF raised its global economic growth forecast to 3.0 percent for 2025, and 3.1 percent for 2026, representing a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point increase respectively from the April projections. The outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa was similarly adjusted, with growth now projected at 4.0 percent in 2025 and 4.3 percent in 2026—up by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively.
“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 percent, before picking up to 4.3 percent in 2026,” the IMF noted.
IMF Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, attributed the global upward revision to stronger-than-expected economic activity, a weaker U.S. dollar, improved financial conditions, and expansionary fiscal policies in some regions. He cautioned, however, that the global outlook remains fragile.
“Risks remain tilted to the downside. A breakdown in trade talks or renewed protectionism could dampen growth globally and fuel inflation in some countries,” Gourinchas warned. “Geopolitical tensions, persistent uncertainty, and fiscal vulnerabilities also pose significant threats to sustained recovery.”
Despite the cautious optimism, the IMF emphasized the need for decisive economic policy action across both advanced and developing economies. It urged governments to reduce policy uncertainty, particularly in trade, restore fiscal buffers, and implement critical structural reforms.
“Reducing policy uncertainty is essential,” the report stated. “Many countries need to rebuild fiscal buffers, ensure central bank independence, and preserve financial and price stability. Structural reforms that support long-term productivity and economic resilience are crucial.”
For Nigeria, the revised forecast reflects growing confidence in its economic recovery efforts, though challenges such as inflation, exchange rate volatility, and fiscal pressures persist. Analysts say effective implementation of reforms and investment-friendly policies will be key to sustaining growth momentum in the years ahead.
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