The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.0%, citing declining global crude oil prices as a key factor behind the revision.
This was disclosed in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, D.C., United States.
The revised projection marks a 0.2 percentage point drop from the Fund’s earlier forecast of 3.2% for Nigeria, reflecting the country’s vulnerability to fluctuations in the global oil market.
“For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to decline slightly from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, before recovering modestly to 4.2% in 2026,” the report stated.
The IMF noted that Nigeria, along with several other major African economies, is facing economic headwinds driven by both domestic and international pressures. The growth outlook for 2026 was also revised downward by 0.3 percentage points.
South Africa was similarly affected, with the IMF lowering its 2025 growth projection by 0.5 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points for 2026. The downgrade was attributed to weaker-than-expected 2024 performance, heightened policy uncertainty, and slowing demand from major global economies.
In a more dramatic move, South Sudan’s 2025 growth forecast was slashed by a staggering 31.5 percentage points due to prolonged delays in restarting oil production following significant pipeline damage.
The IMF’s latest report underscores the fragile nature of economic recovery across the continent, especially for oil-dependent nations like Nigeria, as global market dynamics continue to exert downward pressure on fiscal and growth prospects.
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